May 5th 5 winners! Dazzler $4.5, Manhattan Miad $5.7, Shenzou Steeds $5.1, Hot Lover $4.5, Gail $14,

May 2nd 4 winners! Cosmic Demon $7.5, Belmaison $3.6, Black And Bent $1.4, Second Effort $3.7,

Mar 2 5 winners! Chateau Margeaux $3.1 Snitzem $2.4 Luck San $2.57 Valedictorian $2.7 Tanah Lot $4.7,

ODDS COURTESY OF BETFAIR,

Feb 3, 4 winners - Lil Red Corvette $2.68, Hadronica $2.2, Sidecar $2.28, Tenno $2.8,

Feb 9, 5 winners! Gold Rust $2.54, Shadow Ninja $1.7, You Think So $2.3, Rock Hit $4.2, Xaar Best $4,

ODDS COURTESY OF BETFAIR!,

Feb 10, 5 winners! FortuneOfWar $1.66, Accrual $1.60, Snitzem $2.88, Zamorar $1.5, Second King $4.8,

ODDS COURTESY OF BETFAIR,

News

Gummy free form analysis Feb 18 @ Flemington

18th February 2012

SATURDAY 18th OF FEBRUARY – FLEMINGTON
This could be an absolute cracker day on the punt - the class should start to rise to the top now with just three weeks until the Australian Guineas and four until the Australian Cup, stick with the better horses across the meeting and sit back and enjoy another Black Caviar win.

FLEMINGTON – Track: Dead (4) should be upgraded, Rail: Out 9m (11am Friday) (I would be surprised if this track played one way or another to leaders or swoopers, if anything the 9m position might accentuate the effect of low speed races. With some showers about we might actually stay in the Dead range for a few races, but I expect an upgrade by Race 3 or 4. Expect a perfect racing surface.)

RACE 8 (5.30pm) 1200m Open Hcp
Expected Pace – Moderate (leaders should be favoured)
Look, I hate tipping favourites, long term subscribers know that I always look for value, but this meeting just seems to play in favour of those near the top of the markets. The positive is that we should all have a good day on the punt, the negative is that if an upset occurs we may be knackered! I've got two to play with here in the last race NO. 8 BIGELOW and NO. 11 JUGAHLATION and although there is $17 between them  in the market they rate within a couple of  lengths of each other with me. We know Bigelow is stakes class - he is a Listed winner and Group 2 placed, but he gets in remarkably well at the weights this weekend at 54kg's considering he lugged 60kg's first-up at Caulfield. He ran home in best of the day sections that day (faster than Southern Speed at the 600/4000/200) and was never going to nab the smart 3yo's Hot Spin or African Pulse, but today's race is a far more suitable affair. There is little pressure up front for a sprint race so I expect this to go the way of the horse with the best turn of foot - statistically Bigelow is consistently that horse. The other runner with a good turn of foot is Jugahlation but the key to this bloke is to hold him up, just like Ben Melham did here first-up. Since then he has been unsuited at Moonee Valley, and then ridden too close at Sandown - this race maps well for him and at $21 he is a big show. NO. 9 SPIRITED EAGLE brings some very strong form to this race behind the likes of Woorim and Soul and residual fitness from spring stands him in good stead this weekend. He is another horse that can drop some time off a moderate tempo and Newitt rides from an inside gate. NO. 13 BETTER BE SURE is a well-regarded sprinter from the Brian Cox yard and that camp cannot be underestimated when they bring one to town. Things didn't go his way when this fellow made his metro debut and he had probably come to the end of his tether at that stage, he looks the leader here and he should run a good race.       
TIPS – 8, 11, 9, 13
CONFIDENCE LEVEL 80% (happy to back the best sit-sprint horses)
BETTING ADVICE – A win bet on No. 8 Bigelow and an each-way ticket on No. 11 Jugahlation at a big price
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