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Scott Ferguson's Australian Open title preview
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By Scott Ferguson
It's Aussie Open time which means a plethora of betting and trading opportunities on Betfair.
Match betting is the obvious choice for quick investments, but betting in-running is tricky with the Federal online ban meaning you have to ring up to trade your position. The outright markets though aren't classed as in-play until the final, so you can trade a player's outright position right through the fortnight.
MEN'S DRAW
The men's tournament comes down to the big four vs the rest, so let's take a look at how we might trade them:
1. Djokovic - took the world before him last year, winning three of the four Slam events. Ended the season quite sore and tired, so whether he is in the shape of last January is contentious.
Looked good in Abu Dhabi but hasn't played an event since. Certainly a better player than 12 months ago, and he now carries the weight of heavy expectations. Value at 2.5? I doubt it but record in 2011 v Rafa 6-0, v Federer 5-1 (French Open), v Murray 2-1 (loss via retirement).
At the US Open last year, he was 1.53 against Federer in the semi, and 1.67 against Nadal in the final. Unless the draw collapses, he won't be a whole lot shorter here so if you want to back him, I don't see much point in doing before the second week. If you want to lay him, his price won't move much until the fourth round possibly against Raonic so there's no rush.
2. Nadal - injured here last year when losing in the QF to Ferrer. Ended 2011 with a Davis Cup win for Spain, just days after not caring at all at the Tour finale in London.
Weird as it seems, he may be flying in under the radar here. If fit (always some concern over his knees and shoulder), he's right in it. Has drawn the softest quarter, only Berdych and perhaps Isner to worry about before the semis. Should not be the outsider of the four (currently $8) and expect his price to shorten slightly with each win before it gets serious in the quarters and beyond.
3. Federer - finally lands on the Nadal side of the draw rather than against Djokovic, which on current form and surface, is a slight advantage.
Dominant at the ATP World Tour finals in London, mostly because he was fit and fresh while everyone else was knackered after an arduous season. Once everyone was back on deck, he didn't have the weapons to compete in Abu Dhabi. Back troubles in Qatar, but claims to be over it.
Match to match, he can still do anything, but I can't have him in the Slams over five sets. Dolgopolov (/perhaps Tomic) and del Potro/Fish lay ahead in his quarter, even to make him work. I think he's too short around 5.5, I declared he wouldn't win another major back after Wimbledon 2010 - he's only made one final in the last Grand Slam events after reaching 17 of the previous 18 deciders. He's a lay for me and being unders already, take it now.
4. Murray - bag him as you will but 2011 was his best year yet. Reaching the semis of each Slam event, when the three guys ranked above him have been mentioned in best of all-time discussions, is a fantastic achievement.
It's the bit between his ears which needs to be fine-tuned and the recruitment of Ivan Lendl as coach could be the final piece in the puzzle. After all, Lendl himself was 0-4 in Grand Slam finals at one stage and turned it around.
Tough draw with Monfils and Tsonga in his section but arrives in form winning the Brisbane title easily after a slow start to the week.
Watch his prices fluctuate in matches as he gets in a bit of a rut, looks grumpy, the British punters abandon him and then he launches yet another fightback. Has won six times from two-sets-to-love down so do not write him off, however rough he is looking. Runner-up here last two years, currently trading at 7.8.
Betfair have a market on 'Will the Top 4 all reach the semis?' Currently that's about a 4.5 chance (it happened twice last year - at Roland Garros and Flushing Meadow), so there's a chance of others breaking in. I think Ferrer is the most likely to beat Djokovic early, he's super consistent but will need Nole being less than 100% fit.
Murray has Monfils and Tsonga to contend with in his quarter. Federer's main danger before the semis looks like 2009 US Open champion del Potro (can't see Tomic getting far enough to meet him, he has a very tough early draw), and Nadal has Isner and Berdych to worry about most.
For a big price trade (back high, lay low), I suggest having beer money on Monfils (around 180) and possibly Anderson (1000) for some enjoyment. You will need a few breaks in the draw to really make anything out of these tickets, but that should be fairly obvious.
WOMEN'S DRAW
In contrast to the men's title, the women's event is much more open. As many as six players could hold the no.1 ranking after the tournament, testament to how the women's tour is shifting from the domination of the Williams sisters/Clijsters/Henin into the next bunch of fine fillies.
It's hard to narrow them down into just these:
1. Wozniacki - will be a token no.1 until she breaks that Slam duck. Trying to bring more aggression into her game but still not a patch on the free-swingers like Serena or Kvitova.
Had treatment on her left wrist in loss to close buddy A.Radwanska in Sydney, and that injury can be nasty if full blown, even if it only affects her on the backhand side.
Draw says Jankovic R4, Clijsters/Li QF, Azarenka/Aggie Rad SF. Odds to win the title (the longest ever for a top seed on the 'neutral' hardcourt) show just how much of a token no.1 she is. Oppose but no point laying her at 20.
2. Kvitova - exciting leftie who is seen as the heir to the no.1 mantle: she has already won Wimbledon and won the end-of-year WTA Championship.
Looked in fine touch at the Hopman Cup, beating Wozniacki and Bartoli despite carrying a little extra condition. That works for her on the power game side but I'm a little concerned about it if Melbourne has a hot spell and she meets a couple of retrievers who won't stop running.
QF here last year, beaten by Zvonareva. Very nice draw - Stosur/Bartoli QF, perhaps Serena/Sharapova in the semi. Worthy favourite but not sure about taking 4 this far out. Major shortening of her odds will probably require Azarenka, Clijsters or Williams to fail rather than her win as expected.
3. Azarenka - announced on Twitter recently that her goal for the year is to be no.1. She's capable but the query is whether she can do it via winning Slams or via the Wozniacki route.
Ability never in question, it's that bit between the ears that holds the key. Beaten R4 by Li Na last year, gained a tiny bit of revenge by beating her in the Sydney final on Friday.
Been on the tour a few years now, has just the one Slam semi to her name. $7.8 is on the short side for me, I've been guilty of backing her at Slams before and it won't be happening again until she wins one.
5. Li Na - finalist here last year who went onto win the French. Form waned in back half of the year but the month of hard pre-season work in Germany has paid off - unbeaten in the Hopman Cup, then reached the final in Sydney (beat Kvitova, lost to Azarenka). Right in the mix and is always a backable price. Clijsters R4 wil be her acid test.
6. Stosur - in New York, she became Australia's first female Grand Slam singles winner since 1980 and now the expectations on her at home are huge.
Beaten by Benesova in Brisbane and Schiavone in Sydney, but you don't win Slams in the first half of January. Has never been past R4 in Melbourne - stagefright or just bad luck?
Kvitova and Serena have been her last two conquerors here but I still lean towards under-performing in the spotlight. Speculate now if you want to be patriotic, don't back her seriously until she gets into the second week.
8. A.Radwanska - seemed to kick on a bit last northern summer winning three hardcourt titles in latter half of the year, becoming a real contender for a hardcourt Slam. In probably the easiest quarter, with Azarenka her main obstacle to a berth in the semis who has been known to wilt. One for a speculative back.
11. Clijsters - defending champ who started well in Brisbane before succumbing to a hip injury. Claims the retirement was only precautionary (as 90% of them are this time of year) so don't let that put you off.
Likely to be her final year on the circuit so she'll go down swinging. R3 Hantuchova, R4 Li, QF Wozniacki. More than up to the task. Much bigger price on Betfair than she is on the books.
12. Serena Williams - hardly plays outside the Slams and has told the media she intends to scale down her schedule even further as she prepares for life after tennis.
Rolled an ankle in Brisbane, completed the match and then gave a walkover in following round. Her aura of invincibility took a beating after getting thumped by Stosur in the US Open final.
If you're keen to back her, you're better off waiting until week two to ensure mental and physical fitness. Too short until that is proven although five-time winners rarely have much left to prove.
25. Kanepi - dominant in Brisbane, looking in the best shape I've ever seen her in. A real momentum player, when she's on that roll, any opponent can fall to her.
Well done to the person who backed her as high as 420 on Betfair, I reckon she'll go a lot shorter than her current price of 25. Most of the 'names' in her quarter have had some sort of injury concern recently, take the form runner in prime physical condition.
I can't see too many others having a shot - Sharapova and Zvonareva are coming off injuries with little to no match practice, Bartoli is still quite batty and Jankovic & Ivanovic are the WTA equivalent of equine pretender Smart Missile. I've backed Clijsters, Kanepi and Li in recent weeks, with my longshot ticket being on Cibulkova - same logic as Kanepi, she's fully fit in a quarter where many of them are under a cloud.
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