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Scott Ferguson's Day 1 Aus Open preview
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By Scott Ferguson
I'm not generally a favourite backer which is tricky at Grand Slam time because it's when, as a result of the pressure and extended length matches for men, a higher percentage of favourites lob. So let's see what we can find at backable prices, ladies first!
WOMEN'S
Zhang v Wozniak - this is mostly a play against the Canadian, she just isn't that good. I'm a big admirer of the tough Chinese players and Zhang arrives after playing an ITF event in Quanzhou. Definitely a hardcourt player, last year she notched up several wins over top 100 players, while Wozniak seems to take one step forward, two steps back constantly in her career. Odds should be closer together, the Chinese player is the value play at around 2.7.
Barrois v Krajicek - big price here on the German, she qualified in Hobart before being undone in the windy conditions in R1. Hasn't really cracked it at Melbourne Park, but has given Dementieva and Stosur a workout in recent years. Krajicek just hasn't delivered on all the promise she showed early, mostly because of a rotten run with injuries. She didn't clear qualies at either Brisbane or Sydney and I can't see why she is such a clear fav. Value play on Barrois at around 2.6.
Zakopalova v Pavlyuchenkova - majorly underwhelmed with the Russian's play in Brisbane and Sydney. QF at Roland Garros and the US last year, but that was without the burden of an enormous Xmas dinner. Looks out of shape and while that doesn't guarantee a win for the Czech, it does mean 4.0 is a seriously big price. She did lose 7-5 in the third in Brisbane and Hobart R1s, so some might prefer to lay Pavlyuchenkova to win in straight instead.
MEN'S
Llodra v Gulbis - to say Gulbis is erratic is like saying Cadel Evans is a decent cyclist - a massive understatement. Llodra was undefeated in the less-than-serious World Team Challenge in Adelaide, beating Dolgopolov, Haas and Wawrinka without dropping a set (all sets 7-5 or 7-6). He has a poor record here over the years, having only reached R2 the last two times, but surely this is his chance against a guy who has lost seven of his past eight. $2.4 is overs in my book.
Tomic v Verdasco - great match in prospect. On lead-up form - Tomic def Berdych, Monfils and Fish, at Kooyong and reached the semis in Brisbane, while Verdasco didn't beat much in Perth or Auckland before losing to Gasquet and Ferrer respectively. Bernie should win, but I think he's poor value around 1.6 - after all, Verdasco is 11-3 here in the past three years. If forced to have a bet, I'd be laying a three set match (either in 3-0 scorelines or number of sets markets).
Kohlschreiber v Monaco - the German reached the semis in Auckland and has won the only clash between the pair on hardcourt. The South American has been been troubled by a chronic wrist injury for years and pulled out of the Kiwi event, he's likely to be underdone. Kohlschreiber generally plays well here, reaching R4 here on two occasions. $1.58 looks generous to me. with an extra bite of the cherry on Kohl 3-0, I can see Monaco crumbling like an Indian batting line-up if he's not in the mood.
Ito v Starace - the Italian has never won a match here (6 R1 losses, and just two wins at US Open in eight visits). Rubbish on hardcourt and Ito is one of several decent young Japanese players coming through the ranks, with a very good record in challengers events on hard surfaces. On grass last year, Ito took Tomic to 7-5 in the third in a challenger. That's good enough for me. Lump on the $2.1.
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